Value of a control decision rule for leek moth infestations in leek

Fourteen commercial leek fields with first and second generation Leek moth, Acrolepiopsis assectella Z., (LM) injury were sampled during 1986 in The Netherlands. For both generations, plant injury was more prevalent in the perimeter of the field than in interior portions. A sequential sampling program for use in making treatment decisions for LM was developed. An economic analysis of the value of sampling information derived from the sequential sampling program was performed. The parameters used for the analysis were crop yield and value, expected level of LM infestation, potential loss of value due to LM infestation, effectiveness of insecticide application, and cost of sampling. Due mainly to the high value of the crop and low cost of treatment, analysis indicates that there is little difference between a samplingbased management plan and prophylactic application of insecticides in terms of pest control costs. Additionally, such a sampling-based management plan is relatively insensitive to changes in the parameters used in the model. Thus, development of a threshold linked to a sampling procedure will not reduce pest control costs. Use of the sampling-based management plan will also not significantly increase pest control costs and will likely result in reduced insecticide use compared with a prophylactic treatment program.